Russian Military Mobilization - Left: Russian President Vladimir Putin takes part in the opening ceremony of the Year of Teacher and Mentor, via video link in Moscow, Russia March 2, 2023. Sputnik/Mikhail Metzel/Pool via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY.
Vladimir Putin's announcement of partial mobilization on September 21 signaled a major escalation of the war and caught the world's attention. Putin was forced to do this because of battlefield reverses and a shortage of personnel.
Russian Military Mobilization
Other sources of personnel are drying up. Many commentators have pointed to training and equipment challenges, which will be real, but not insurmountable. Mobilization will not turn the tide of war, but may allow Putin to implement his political strategy, which is to outlast the Europeans.
Training Will Be A Challenge
What is uncertain is whether Russian popular opposition to mobilization will derail military plans. In any case, Ukraine has a window of opportunity for battlefield success before these mobilized troops arrive. The Kerch Bridge, Vladimir Putin's prized $4 billion span linking the occupied Crimean peninsula with Russia, may be one step closer to being fully operational.
Images emerged on social media appearing to show the recent removal of a span of the railway bridge to Crimea being removed, presumably to carry out repairs. The bridge was badly damaged in an Oct. 8 attacks.
Both Putin and Shoigu stated that reservists would receive additional training, probably two weeks. By U.S. standards, this is not nearly enough. The United States gave mobilized units months of training before sending them to Iraq or Afghanistan, although personnel mobilized as individuals received less training.
The Russian military bureaucracy is not prepared to take on so many troops. Unlike the United States, the Russians do not have basic training centers. Most training is done at the combat units, but much of that training cadre has been sent to Ukraine or become casualties.
Initial Reports Indicate Mobilization Is Going Badly
In other developments, the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke briefly Thursday at a meeting of top diplomats from the Group of 20 nations. It was the first high-level meeting in months between Russia and the U.S.
The mobilized Russian soldiers, under orders from separatist commanders from the Donetsk region, were "sent to storm the Avdiivka fortified area without any support, artillery, communications, sappers, or reconnaissance," one unnamed fighter told the Russian outlet.
Although it is unclear what happened in Kolomna, Ukraine has conducted long-range strikes before, there have been other suspected Ukrainian attacks deep inside Russia, like drone attacks on Russia's Engels Air Base in the Saratov region in December.
You can read more about those attacks here. The bureaucracy appears unready to handle the demands of such a complex effort. Personnel must be identified, notified, medically evaluated, administratively brought onto active duty, and then sent to a training establishment.
The Timing Is Driven By Recent Russian Reverses On The Battlefield
During this administrative period, personnel must be fed and housed. The United States suffered problems with its mobilization mechanisms in 1991, the first large mobilization since World War II, but worked out procedures over time. The Russians may have the same experience.
Media reports have cited the number of 300,000 troops being activated, but that does not appear in the original speech. The implementing decree leaves the number to the Ministry of Defense. Some Russian bloggers have claimed that the number could be 1 million.
All these numbers are speculative. Russia's ability to induct, train, equip, and move troops to the front is limited. This mobilization will be a stream, not a surge. The Russian Volunteer Corps describes itself as "a volunteer formation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine."
Little is known about the group and it is not immediately clear if the group indeed has any ties with the Ukrainian military. Nor was it clear from the Corps statement what action it took and what specific objectives it wanted to achieve.
Equipment May Be Less Of A Challenge
"So seeing the press reports in terms of Ukrainian operations, I refer you to them to talk about their operations," Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the top Pentagon spokesman, told reporters Thursday afternoon. "I cannot corroborate those reports in terms of what we've seen in the press."
"Coordinated efforts among U.S. and UK maritime forces led to Royal Navy frigate HMS Lancaster confiscating anti-tank guided missiles and missile components from a small boat that originated from Iran," the Pentagon reported Thursday. "UK forces discovered packages that included Iranian versions of Russian 9M133 Kornet anti-tank guided missiles, known in Iran as "Dehlavieh," and medium-range ballistic missile components."
Skibitsky said it would take Russia approximately two months to put together the military formations and any Russian success on the battlefield would depend on how well equipped and trained the Russians are. Much will also depend, he said, on the continued supply of western ammunition and weaponry to Ukraine in order to equip the new reserve units Ukraine is preparing.
Amid all the talk of combat aircraft being sent to Ukraine and the training of its pilots outside the country, Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council, issued a threat against any nation that supplies or repairs those aircraft.
The Purpose Of Mobilization Is Ultimately Political Rather Than Victory On The Battlefield
Such an action would mean the direct entry of that nation into the war, he said. Putin is set to chair a weekly meeting of his Security Council on Friday. Asked by reporters whether the attack in Bryansk could warrant a change in the status of the conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded with a coy "I can't say for now."
Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of the Bryansk region, which borders Ukraine, said the group fired on a vehicle in Lyubechane, killing one man and wounding a child. He also said that a Ukrainian drone struck a house in Sushany, setting it ablaze.
Russia's attacks in the Donbas region petered out in July having gained some territory, although at a high cost. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. In the southwest, the Ukrainians are currently attacking towards Kherson and although they have not taken much territory, they are putting the Russians under considerable pressure.
Russian forces are vulnerable, occupying a large bridgehead on the west side of the Dnipro River. Ukrainian precision strikes are squeezing Russian logistics. Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues.
Russia Is Struggling To Turn Potential Power Into Actual Power
Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). "Everything that happens in Russia is the local population's opposition to Putin's terrorist regime, non-observance of fire safety measures or other reasons beyond the control of the Armed Forces. In particular, reports on the internet about the events in Bryansk region are an audacious
Moscow provocation," they said, according to the Ukrainian Babel news agency. To put the Russian force into perspective, the United States has an active-duty force of 1.3 million and organized, trained reserves of 800,000. Thus, the United States has about twice the readily available trained personnel that Russia does.
Later, Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu elaborated that the mobilization would come in phases. He also described a deliberate training process. Shoigu and Putin stated that students and workers in the defense industry would be exempted.
Putin announced a partial mobilization for the war effort in September 2022. On February 5, 2023, the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank suggested Putin had delayed mobilization plans despite a "depleted military."
Russian Forces Are Not Large
KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russian officials accused Ukrainian saboteurs of crossing into western Russia and attacking local villages Thursday, an accusation that Ukraine denied, warning that Moscow could use the claims to justify stepping up its own assaults in the ongoing war.
Taking the city would not only give the Russian forces a rare battlefield gain after months of setbacks, but it might rupture Ukraine's supply lines and allow the Kremlin's forces to press towards other Ukrainian strongholds in Donetsk.
"Putin is evidently reticent to announce a second wave of mobilization," the think tank said, owing to the "extreme unpopularity of the first wave of mobilization." Putin's reluctance to publicly order a second wave may indicate a preference for "silent mobilization," the ISW added.
Whether there was a real incursion, a Russian false flag operation to give Putin further pretext to mobilize more troops, a rouge operation by pro-Ukrainian partisans or nothing at all, Moscow is clearly concerned about cross-border attacks.
The Wild Card Is Political Opposition
Putin did have two other options: use nuclear weapons or negotiate a settlement. The commentariat has speculated endlessly about the use of nuclear weapons. Such use would risk Russian national survival for a sliver of Ukrainian territory.
So far, Russia has limited nuclear threats to NATO direct intervention or Ukrainian movement into the Russian homeland. More Iranian weapons could be on the way to Ukraine if the U.S. opts to send Kyiv thousands of assault rifles, 1.6 million rounds of small arms ammo, and more seized from smugglers.
The story was first reported by The Wall Street Journal. We've asked the Pentagon for more details and will update this report with any information provided. "The story about [a Ukrainian] sabotage group in [Russia] is a classic deliberate provocation," Ukrainian presidential advisor Mikhail Podolyak wrote on Twitter Thursday.
The Russian Federation "wants to scare its people to justify the attack on another country & the growing poverty after the year of war. The partisan movement in [Russia] is getting stronger & more aggressive. Fear your partisans.”
Russia Lacks A Strong Reserve Force
The head of the organization is Denis Kapustin - who also uses the last name Nikitin, - is shown in the picture below. He is the one without the flag. Kapustin is a well-known far-right, Neo-Nazi activist, according to Michael Colborne, head of the Bellingcat Monitoring Project.
Tass, citing Russian law enforcement, reported earlier that the saboteurs were holding up to six people hostage. The local governor said the group had fired on a vehicle there, killing one man and wounding a 10-year-old child.
In December, Ukraine's minister of defense, Oleksii Reznikov, and army commander, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, said Russia would attack from Belarus again this coming February. Conversely, Ukraine's military intelligence said they believed the possibility of an attack from Belarus was low.
Speaking of attacks inside Russia, the Russian Baza news agency reported on its Telegram channel that there was "an explosion in the suburbs of Kolomna," about 70 miles southeast of Moscow and more than 275 miles from the Ukrainian border.
What To Watch For
"What exactly happened is still unknown, but the explosion was heard in almost all parts of the city." But even if Russia has the numbers, said the US military expert Rob Lee, it does not automatically mean that its units will be effective – leadership, ammunition and training are problems right now in the Russian army.
He said Ukraine expected the latest wave of mobilization to be announced on January 15, after Russia's winter holiday period. "They are putting their emphasis on numbers of men and equipment and hoping to overwhelm our side."